2012-02-21
UFC 144: Edgar vs. Henderson
Saturday, Feb. 25 – 11:00 p.m. ET
Saitama Super Arena – Saitama, Japan
Frankie Edgar (14-1-1) vs. Benson Henderson (15-2-0)
Lightweight Bout
Line: Edgar -130, Henderson +100
Frankie Edgar lays his lightweight belt on the line as he takes on Benson Henderson for the first UFC fight in Japan since 2000.
The MMA Odds Breaker crew gives their fight predictions based on the opening lines for this bout:
Despite holding three inches over Edgar, Henderson is a slight underdog in this fight. The 28-year-old is coming off three consecutive wins, most notably the title eliminator fight against Clay Guida. But he has yet to truly assert himself against these top foes with decision victories in all three of those fights. Edgar won the lightweight belt from BJ Penn at UFC 112, and defended it against him just four months later. He then retained his belt with a draw against Gray Maynard, who was awarded another chance, but fell as Edgar KO’ed him in the fourth round. Both of these fighters are among the best wrestlers in this class, but Edgar’s versatility and ability to be a strong striker make him the play in this one. Although his ground game is elite as a takedown artist, Edgar also fights superbly from his feet; 64% of his successful strikes come standing. Edgar is a stronger and better-rounded fighter than Henderson – it is surprising that he is running off as such a slight favorite. Play on EDGAR to retain the belt.
With the draw against Maynard, Edgar has won six of his past seven fights, without a loss in any of them. Four of those wins have come as decisions, but he won via submission against Matt Veach before beating Penn for the first time, and then later KO’ed Maynard. Edgar was a Division I wrestler in college which builds the foundation for his attack style, but what defines him is his athleticism and ability to display his best performance for five full rounds. At 30 years old, he is not yet past his prime and has at least one more title win in him. Play on the slight favorite here.
Henderson also wrestled in college where he built the base of his takedown-oriented style. At 51% takedowns, he is slightly more focused on that than his opponent (47%). Henderson has shown he can win fights via submission, with eight of his career victories coming that way, but it is a bit of a concern that his past three fights have come via decision. It will be tough to outlast and consistently outfight somebody as well-rounded and talented as Edgar, so he will need to bring his best wrestling game to takedown Edgar before the final bell in this one. Play against.
