NFL: MINNESOTA at CAROLINA (8:20 PM ET, NBC)
The Vikings hope to lock down a first round playoff bye when they travel to Carolina for the NBC Sunday night feature. Depending upon what happened in Pittsburgh a bit earlier with Green Bay, Minnesota may already have clinched the NFC North Division crown by the time this game kicks off. Oddsmakers expected all systems go for HC Brad Childress’ team, installing them as 7.5-point opening line favorites. Since then however, the line has shot up to 9-points at Sportsbook.com with bettors backing the favorites at a 91% rate. This could be your classic trap spot in NFL football.
At 11-2, the Vikings’ chances sure look promising but they will be up against a host of betting tidbits favoring the Panthers. First off, Carolina is on a 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS run at home in the month of December. Secondly, Carolina owns a 9-1 ATS record all-time in home games versus excellent offensive teams averaging >=375 YPG. Thirdly, Brad Childress’ Vikings teams have struggled versus good rushing teams (>=4.5 YPR), going 0-6 ATS in his tenure. If that weren’t enough, the home team has swept the L3 head-to-head meetings. Still, Minnesota is the road favorite and boasts a 6-game better record than the Panthers at this point. An upset would certainly be improbable.
How one-sided does Sunday’s quarterback matchup between Brett Favre and Matt Moore appear? Consider that Favre has thrown four touchdowns in a game twice as a member of Minnesota, while Moore has thrown just four in his entire three-year career. But this game is about far more than a future Hall of Famer and a quarterback making his sixth career start.
Favre has been at his worst on the road in 2009, getting sacked 16 times in six games, and he’s also thrown four of his six interceptions outside of the cozy Metrodome. Carolina’s pass defense has been its strength, picking off 18 passes while allowing just 13 touchdown throws. Four Panthers have picked off at least three passes, and the unit added another off Tom Brady in a 20-10 loss at New England last Sunday.
Carolina’s ground attack may have caught a huge break with the absence of E.J. Henderson smack in the middle of the Minnesota defense. Henderson suffered a gruesome broken leg in the loss at Arizona, and Cedric Benson bulled and grunted his way to 96 yards on 16 carries last week.
The negative impact was obvious and few backfields pack the punch of the Panthers. DeAngelo Williams returned after a one-game absence and ran for 82 yards, but he’s just one half of Minnesota’s nightmare in Week 15. When Williams was sidelined, his backup/understudy, Jonathan Stewart, took advantage of the starter’s reps and rumbled for 120 yards and a score against Tampa Bay. Either Stewart or Williams has run for at least 120 yards in six of Carolina’s last nine games. Adrian Peterson’s a one-man show, but hasn’t topped the century mark in four games.
Minnesota could find itself in a predicament because the feisty Panthers may not have to limit Moore. He’s an efficient 29-for-50 in the last two games, but while he employs the dink-and-dunk strategy, his top target, Steve Smith, hasn’t been totally forgotten. He hauled in a 66-yard pass against the Buccaneers and a 41-yard touchdown last week.
