June was lowest scoring MLB month since 1997
Sometimes a hunch can really amount to something. In studying some of the baseball numbers this week, it dawned on me that something was amiss. It seemed as if there was way more lower scoring games than usual, so I dug into the numbers and looked for answers. As it turns out, my hunch was correct, as according to the StatFox Database, the month of June 2009 will go down on record as the lowest scoring regular season month in baseball since at least 1997. Not coincidentally, June also produced the most UNDER results on total bets in that span as well. Does it mean anything going forward?
The June games in 2009 produced on average just 8.75 runs per game. The next closest month dating back to ’97 was last year’s month of May, which averaged 8.94 RPG. Only one other month, September 2005 (8.98) averaged less than 9.0 RPG. In fact, comparatively, there were ten months that produced over 10.0 RPG, the benchmark for the highest scoring contests.
In all, there were 217 UNDER’s, 163 OVER’s, and 19 Pushes, or a 57.1% UNDER percentage. Prior to that, in the last 13 years, the next most frequent UNDER month was May 2005, which produced 55.5%. None of the other 75 regular season months since then had an UNDER percentage more than 55%. That goes to show how irregular of an occurrence we have all witnessed.
All of this is great for talk around the water cooler, or on Baseball Tonight, but what does it mean for bettors going forward? Is there anything suggest that the pattern might shift in July? Should we start unloading on OVER’s at the betting window? According to StatFox Staff members Dave & Jeff, you would think so, as for both of them, their first reaction to my finding was “Start betting OVER’s”. Here’s a quick look at what happened in the follow up month of the Top 10 lowest scoring months and Top 10 most frequent UNDER months:
Top 10 Lowest Scoring Months Since ’97, along with the follow up month:
1. June 2009 (8.75 RPG), O-U-T: 163-217-19, 42.9%
Follow up month: July 2009 ???
2. May 2008 (8.94 RPG), O-U-T: 182-219-21, 45.4%
Follow up month: June 2008 (9.08 RPG), O-U-T: 179-202-23, 47.0%
3. September 2005 (8.98 RPG), O-U-T: 183-211-19, 46.4%
Follow up month: April 2006 (9.86 RPG), O-U-T: 192-155-19, 55.3%
4. April 2008 (9.05 RPG), O-U-T: 180-209-14, 46.3%
Follow up month: May 2008 (8.94 RPG), O-U-T: 182-219-21, 45.4%
5. May 2002 (9.07 RPG), O-U-T: 184-216-17, 46.0%
Follow up month: June 2002 (9.17 RPG), O-U-T: 186-195-19, 48.8%
6. April 2007 (9.08 RPG), O-U-T: 167-178-25, 48.4%
Follow up month: May 2007 (9.3 RPG), O-U-T: 192-207-22, 48.1%
7. June 2008 (9.08 RPG), O-U-T: 179-202-23, 47.0%
Follow up month: July 2008 (9.81 RPG), O-U-T: 203-166-11, 55.0%
8. May 2005 (9.12 RPG), O-U-T: 173-216-26, 44.5%
Follow up month: June 2005 (9.54 RPG), O-U-T: 184-188-27, 49.5%
9. April 2005 (9.14 RPG), O-U-T: 159-178-13, 47.2%
Follow up month: May 2005 (9.12 RPG), O-U-T: 173-216-26, 44.5%
10. August 2002 (9.16 RPG), O-U-T: 201-205-20, 49.5%
Follow up month: September 2002 (9.21 RPG), O-U-T: 188-195-19, 49.1%
While the scoring went up slightly in the follow up months, as you can see, Jeff & Dave were right only two of the nine months, in terms of blindly playing the OVER, and one of those months was a completely different season.
Now let’s take a look at this same analysis from an UNDER percentage rankings standpoint:
Top 10 Most Frequent UNDER Months Since ’97, along with the follow up month:
1. June 2009 (8.75 RPG), O-U-T: 163-217-19, 42.9%
Follow up month: July 2009 ???
2. May 2005 (9.12 RPG), O-U-T: 173-216-26, 44.5%
Follow up month: June 2005 (9.54 RPG), O-U-T: 184-188-27, 49.5%
3. July 2001 (9.34 RPG), O-U-T: 169-205-23, 45.2%
Follow up month: August 2001 (9.48 RPG), O-U-T: 188-214-26, 46.8%
4. May 2008 (8.94 RPG), O-U-T: 182-219-21, 45.4%
Follow up month: June 2008 (9.08 RPG), O-U-T: 179-202-23, 47.0%
5. August 2006 (9.36 RPG), O-U-T: 184-217-24, 45.9%
Follow up month: September 2006 (9.54 RPG), O-U-T: 186-201-28, 48.1%
6. May 2002 (9.07 RPG), O-U-T: 184-216-17, 46.0%
Follow up month: June 2002 (9.17 RPG), O-U-T: 186-195-19, 48.8%
7. May 2009 (9.31 RPG), O-U-T: 190-223-15, 46.0%
Follow up month: June 2009 (8.75 RPG), O-U-T: 163-217-19, 42.9%
8. September 1998 (9.28 RPG), O-U-T: 164-192-22, 46.1%
Follow up month: April 1999 (10.03 RPG), O-U-T: 174-142-16, 55.1%
9. July 1999 (10.32 RPG), O-U-T: 181-211-11, 46.2%
Follow up month: August 1999 (9.93 RPG), O-U-T: 198-216-18, 47.8%
10. April 2008 (9.05 RPG), O-U-T: 180-209-14, 46.3%
Follow up month: May 2008 (8.94 RPG), O-U-T: 182-219-21, 45.4%
Again, in looking at the most frequent UNDER months, it seems that the pattern of low scoring results seems to stick around for at least another month, as only one of the follow up months to our Top 10 list resulted in more OVER’s.
Summary
To summarize what we’ve discovered here, clearly June 2009 was a noteworthy month in baseball and for the baseball bettor. However, it would be a mistake to dismiss the low scoring as a fluke, as history has shown that the pattern tends to continue. Therefore, unless oddsmakers completely overadjust and start lowering their posted noticeable by recognizable amounts, I would think twice before betting the OVER in July. Good luck!
Brewers’ strength befits crazy 15-0 Cubs’ trend!
The word “disappointing” has been thrown about regularly regarding the Cubs’ 2009 season thus far as they begin a key four-game series at home against the Brewers on Thursday night. Still, a big holiday weekend against division-leading Milwaukee and Chicago will be right back in the thick of things. According to a 15-0 StatFox Matchup Power Trend, that may be just what’s in store.
The ironic thing about this all-important trend is that it negates the Brewers best strength to this point, their bullpen. Milwaukee currently owns the best WHIP in baseball at 1.247. This sets Chicago up for a matchup that has been very favorable of late. Take a look at the trend, a rare 5* angle from FoxSheets:
CHICAGO CUBS are 15-0 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 6.5, OPPONENT 2.9 - (Rating = 5*)
Of course, with the Brewers teetering right below that key 1.250 WHIP benchmark, this trend might only be in place for Thursday if Chicago smacks around Milwaukee’s relief staff in the series opener.
Milwaukee comes off a disheartening 1-0 setback to the Mets on Wednesday. In fact, after going more than two months without being shut out, the Brewers have been blanked twice in the last four days.
Perhaps now they can sympathize with the Chicago Cubs.
The Cubs hope a return to Wrigley Field will help them snap out of a lengthy offensive funk, especially with the first-place Brewers in town for the first time this year to open a four-game set Thursday night.
Milwaukee had a chance to sweep each of its last two series, but lost 7-0 to San Francisco on Sunday and 1-0 to the New York Mets on Wednesday afternoon.
After scoring a combined 16 runs in their first two games against the Mets, the Brewers (42-36) wasted a seven-inning, 12-strikeout effort from Yovani Gallardo in the finale. They went 0 for 7 with men in scoring position.
"We're in first place. That's all that really matters," outfielder Ryan Braun told the Brewers' official Web site. "We're playing well right now, and I think a lot of guys are starting to put together some quality at-bats. We're in pretty good shape."
The Cubs can't make the same claim. They've scored 129 runs since May 19, fewest in the majors over that span, and suffered six shutout losses to tie Atlanta for the most in that stretch. Chicago went 16-23 in those 39 games.
Last year, the Cubs (37-38) led the NL with 855 runs.
Despite its problems at the plate, Chicago is 3 1/2 games behind Milwaukee in the tightly bunched NL Central. Thanks to some strong pitching, the Cubs took two of three from Pittsburgh this week even though they managed seven runs in the series.
Chicago's offensive woes are a major reason why Ryan Dempster went 0-2 in his five June starts. He had a 3.23 ERA in the month, but received 2.35 runs of support per nine innings as the Cubs lost all five games.
Dempster entered the year with an 8-2 record and 2.45 ERA in 35 appearances against Milwaukee, but he is 1-1 with a 5.84 ERA in two starts versus the Brewers in 2009.
The Cubs and Brewers split their first six meetings of the season, all at Miller Park. Milwaukee was 5-4 at Wrigley last year, an impressive mark considering Chicago went 55-26 at home.
Seth McClung (3-1, 3.55) will be making his first career start against the Cubs, although he has pitched 5 1-3 innings of relief versus Chicago this year. He held the Cubs to a .177 average while posting a 2.55 ERA in 10 career relief appearances despite walking 10 in 17 2-3 innings.
Game time is 7:05 PM local time in Chicago.
IMPORANT CHANGES AT MICROGAMING POKER
Euro will be the currency going forward, and a new approach to tournament action
The Microgaming Poker Network has announced important new changes that include the use of the Euro as the sole currency for its poker tournaments, and a fresh approach to poker tournament action.
The network is taking a fresh approach to tournament poker this summer with the launch of Survivor Tournaments, a new and exciting format for tournament poker play; it is also introducing two additional daily poker tournaments this month, called Breakfast and Bedtime Bounty. A company spokesman said this week that the moves are designed to deliver more playability.
The new Survivor Tournaments are fast paced with nail biting finishes. Players must battle against each other and keep one eye on the clock, as a percentage of players with the lowest chip stacks are eliminated from the tournament at each level.
Players are provided with a survivor status indicator on the table, stating the crucial information that they need to know to survive the next round of elimination. Players can see their status - SAFE, WARNING or DANGER – as well as the target needed to avoid elimination, the time left in the elimination level, and the number of players to be eliminated. All the information needed to make those quick decisions is available at a glance.
All tournaments offer equal payouts to all survivors. To get a share of the winnings, all the player need do is survive.
Mark Pinan, Microgaming’s Poker Network Channel Lead says: “The Microgaming Poker Network is proud of this new and unique tournament offering which is designed to provide the most entertaining network poker competitions available. We predict that July is going to be a big month for tournament poker.”
Also introduced this (July) month is the Breakfast and Bedtime Bounty Tournaments. In both games, half of the player’s buy-in is paid into the prize pool, while the other half forms the bounty on their head. Every time a player is eliminated from the tournament the personal bounty is awarded to the player with the winning hand. Bounties can make a significant boost to the prize money but also means that players are rewarded for eliminating their competitors, even if they don’t win the pot.
Along with the new games, the network has introduced the Euro as the sole currency for its poker tournaments, giving more guarantees, more variety in game play, more chips and longer blinds.
The move from US Dollars to Euros will be applied to all network guaranteed tournaments, freerolls, satellites and regular Multi-Table Tournaments. This move will bring more of the network’s software features into play, including the ‘double buy-in’ option which will be available in all re-buy and second chance tournaments, along with an auto re-buying and topping-up feature. The option to end tournaments early when all remaining prizes are the same will also be available – starting with satellites to the new weekly Euro100 000 GTD tournament.
Why not bet San Diego tonight?
It may not seem like a lot, but San Diego has won three of its last four games for the first time in over a month. On Wednesday night, the Padres will continue a 4-game set at home against the Astros, trying to make it four out of five. Oddsmakers have put them as +110 underdogs. Don’t let the line dissuade you though, San Diego is backed by two different powerful FoxSheets systems.
Here are those systems. They are similar but still unique. The first one is a rare 5* StatFox Super Situation:
Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (HOUSTON) - with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season (NL)
(74-21 since 1997.) (77.9%, +51.5 units. Rating=5*)
The other one reads as follows:
Play On - Any team (SAN DIEGO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season (NL), after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs
(44-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.0%, +34.8 units. Rating=4*)
Both systems seem to be indicating that this game could be decided in the late innings, and the fact that San Diego’s bullpen is pitching well, and Houston’s is not, gives the Padres an edge.
On Tuesday, the Padres snapped their six-game skid to the Astros, but they may have lost their best player in the processwith Adrian Gonzalez departing after straining his right knee sliding into third on a fourth-inning RBI triple.
"We're going to see how it sets up overnight, and (Wednesday) morning we'll see if there is a need for any tests," manager Bud Black said.
Gonzalez has played in 283 straight games, the longest current streak in the majors. He's 22 shy of Steve Garvey's franchise record.
San Diego is last in baseball with 291 runs and a .236 batting average. The Padres hit .230 while losing 17 of 26 in June. They dropped 10 of 15 at Petco Park last month after winning 10 in a row there from May 7-24.
San Diego will hand the ball to Walter Silva (0-1, 9.35 ERA), who makes his fifth career start. The 32-year-old rookie walked four and allowed a season-high nine runs over 2 1-3 innings of Friday's 12-2 loss to Texas.
The Astros (36-39) counter with veteran right-hander Brian Moehler (4-4, 6.05). Houston has won his last three starts and seven of the previous nine. Moehler gave up four runs - one earned - in five innings of Thursday's 5-4 victory over Kansas City. He didn't get the decision after Houston committed three errors.
Houston is 13-5 against the NL West in 2009, but 2-5 at Petco Park.
Game time is 10:05 PM ET in San Diego.
Football Betting is back on Wednesday!
It might not be the first day of the college season, nor the start of the NFL preseason for that matter, but football bettors can still rejoice that the action is back on Wednesday night, with the CFL offering a Canada Day doubleheader. It’s a unique set of games in that the first one pits the two worst teams of a year ago, while the second matches the defending Grey Cup finalists from 2008. Still, both contests should be competitive. Here’s a quick look at both, including some key betting info, direct from FoxSheets.
In the opening matchup, Hamilton will host Toronto. These teams combined to win just three and four games respectively a year ago, at least four less than any other clubs, so work clearly needs to be done. Despite that, cautious optimism still reigns supreme. Hamilton will likely be handing the reigns of the team to young quarterback Quinton Porter, who last started for Boston College in the 2005 season. He will be guiding an offense that actually produced well in ’08, scoring 24.5 PPG while gaining a respectable 8.2 yards per pass attempt.
Defensively in where the Tiger Cats really need to improve in order to be more competitive this season. That unit yielded 32.9 PPG to opponents last season, second most in the CFL, not coincidentally to, Toronto.
The Argonauts have not won a game since Labour Day and have a new coach with no CFL experience. Still, there is hope that Bart Andrus and his staff can help quarterback Kerry Joseph return to the form that made him a league MVP and a Grey Cup champion with Saskatchewan in 2007.
Toronto was outscored by 13.1 PPG, and was probably fortunate to win four games in ’08, as it ranked dead last in the league in both points scored and allowed.
The Argos opened as a 1-1/2 point favorite, but since the line has moved to Hamilton minus-2. The total has settled in at 51.5. The Argos have won three of the last four head-to-head games in Hamilton, both straight up and ATS, including that Labour Day triumph, 34-31.
Both teams sported ugly 2-7 SU & ATS records in the current home/road dichotomies, so no real advantage can be gained in that analysis. The StatFox Game Estimator #1 projects a 33-26 win for the hosts.
If you’re interested in backing a top trend for game one of the twinbill, consider that HAMILTON is 18-5 UNDER (+12.5 Units), and TORONTO 18-6 UNDER (+11.4 Units) in the first two weeks of the season since 1996.
The nightcap is certainly a bit more intriguing of a game, as defending champion Calgary welcomes runner up Montreal to town. The Stampeders opened as a 3-1/2 point favorite but have been bet up to minus-7.5.
Calgary is the favorite by oddsmakers to repeat as CFL champ, but if any team is to stand in its way, it would be Montreal, the heavy favorite in the East Division. Repeating a Grey Cup title has proven to be a tough task. It's only been done five times, with the 1996-97 Argonauts being the last team to accomplish the feat. The Stampeders will be looking to be the sixth team.
"The thing is, we didn't peak last year - in any of the phases (of football)," said Stamps quarterback Henry Burris. "This year, that gives us that challenge to go out there and build the right way and make sure we're peaking at the right time - and actually peak this season."
For a team that didn't peak, Calgary was pretty good. They finished 13-5 and were second in the league with 568 points scored. The defence allowed just 387 points against, tops in the CFL. Coach John Hufnagel was named the CFL's Coach of the Year.
If Calgary does repeat, they would be just the fourth team to win the Grey Cup as the host. The last team to pull that off was the B.C. Lions in 1994.
The Alouettes won the East at 11-7 last year and will have 2008 Most Outstanding Player Anthony Calvillo back at quarterback to lead an offence that led the league with 584 points scored. Avon Cobourne will chase the league's first 1,000 yard rushing and 1,000 yard receiving season. He was on pace to do it last year before injuring his ankle.
One notable stat plagues the Alouettes. They were 0-3 playing Calgary last season, including the 22-14 Grey Cup setback. Montreal scored just 21.0 PPG in those three contests, well below the 35.1 PPG pace set in the other 17 games it played.
There are two key StatFox Power Trends available for Wednesday’s game:
Favoring Calgary ATS:
CALGARY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CALGARY 33.3, OPPONENT 18.2 - (Rating = 1*)
Favoring Under the Total:
MONTREAL is 18-6 UNDER (+11.4 Units) in the first two weeks of the season since 1996. The average score was MONTREAL 28.9, OPPONENT 17.8 - (Rating = 1*)
The StatFox Game Estimator calls for only a 30-26 win by Calgary, so it would seem that oddsmakers had it right when they opened up the line. We’ll see if bettors have gotten a bit overzealous in backing the defending champs.
Tune in to both games in HD on Canada’s TSN tonight, starting at 7:00 PM ET.
CHINA 'POSTPONES' COMPUTER FILTER DECREE (Update)
Eleventh hour postponement after strong global reaction to Green Dam software
The Chinese government's attempt to censor the Internet by having all new hardware fitted with special filtering software which was to be updated continuously by government agencies has apparently been put on hold only hours from the deadline for its implementation.
Branded "Green Dam" the filtering software was developed by a Chinese company in what the government described as protection for its citizens from "unsuitable material" over the Internet. There was a global outcry from governments and Internet freedom bodies, and the decision on what sites could be banned posed a danger of widening control over content by the Chinese government.
Analysts who have reviewed the program say it also contains code to filter out material the government considers politically objectionable.
The official Xinhua News Agency reported that regulators "will delay" the plan but gave no indication whether it might take effect later or why it was being delayed. It gave no other details.
Top U.S. trade officials had protested the plan as a possible trade barrier (see previous InfoPowa reports). Industry groups warned that the software might cause security problems.
Free-speech advocates attacked the plan as censorship, reports Associated Press.
Duncan Clark, chairman of BDA China Ltd., a Beijing research firm speculated to AP, saying: "I think the cost of the move from trade friction and generally a public relations black eye was becoming pretty clear to the government." The postponement "gets them out of the scrutiny of the international media and business."
Wen Yunchao, a Chinese blogger who has been among the most vocal critics of Green Dam, said he did not believe the announcement marked an end to the plan.
"They are using the word 'delay,' instead of saying they stopped the plan,"
Wen said. "I think that it's possible that at some point in the future the government could still enforce their policy and install software on personal computers that filters the information people are able to look at. So, I am calling this an intermediary victory."
China has the biggest Internet population, with more than 298 million users; the country accounts for up to 80 percent of world computer production but the government operates the world's most sweeping system of Internet filtering. The new software would raise those controls to a new level by putting the filter inside each PC.
Manufacturers of computers outside China like Toshiba and Acer had already made preparations to comply with the decree, and said they were ready to provide Green Dam on disk with PCs beginning Wednesday. But industry leaders Hewlett-Packard Inc. and Dell Inc. declined to discuss their plans, possibly waiting for a diplomatic settlement.
Associated Press reports that the Chinese government has been steadily increasing its restrictions on the Internet. Last week, the Health Ministry ordered health-related Web sites that carry research on sexually oriented topics to allow access only to medical professionals, and new rules on "virtual currency" used by some game Web sites have been ordered, forbidding the purchase of real goods with virtual money.
Green Dam is apparently already in use in Internet cafes in China and has been installed since the start of this year in PCs sold under a government program that subsidises appliance sales in the countryside, according to manufacturers and news reports.
"All the computers in this 'Appliances to the countryside' program had this installed or received it on disk," said Yi Juan, a spokeswoman for Great Wall Computer Ltd., a leading domestic PC manufacturer.
