The “Juice” is Loose on Friday at Sportsbook.com
We are just a couple days away from Super Bowl XLIV and if you haven’t already made a wager on the big game, Friday is the perfect day to do so. Reason being, is that as is always the case at Sportsbook.com on Fridays, they offer reduced juice (-105) on nearly all basketball and football games including the Super Bowl XLIV line.
According to Sportsbook.com spokesperson Dave Staley, “The fun with reduced juice doesn’t just begin and end with the Super Bowl line, but it includes a number of propositions as well, including the Coin Toss, where heads and tails are each at a scant -101 juice.” Staley added that “In addition to the reduced juice wager opportunities we have on Super Bowl XLIV, we are also offering a Money Back Special where if you wager on the Player to Score LAST TD prop for Sunday's Saints vs. Colts game and If the last touchdown of the game is from at least 40 yards, winning wagers will be doubled up to $50.00 for this specific prop.”
So far the betting public is behind the Colts as 68 percent of action on the spread is backing Indy -4.5. The Over is also a very popular choice with bettors, as 74 percent of the money here is behind the Over 56.5. The game opened Indy -5 and moved to -5.5, before settling down to the current number of Colts -4.5. It appears that the only injury concern for both squads involves Colts DE Dwight Freeney who is listed as questionable with a bad ankle. But you have to think Freeney plays, after all, it is the Super Bowl.
Staley concluded that “Reduced Juice provides great value for the customer, not only for straight plays, but for parlays as well, where the payouts are greater as a result of players taking advantage of the smaller juice.”
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“Prop”er Amount of Chances to Make Money for Super Bowl
The Odds-makers at Sportsbook.com have once again gone above the call of duty for Super Bowl XLIV. There are over 350 different propositions to wager on for the Super Bowl between the New Orleans Saints and the Indianapolis Colts.
A couple of the more interesting props for Super Bowl XLIV involves Kim Kardashian, the voluptuous girlfriend of New Orleans running back Reggie Bush. Among the props involving Kardashian are “How Many Times will CBS show Kim Kardashian on TV during the Game” where the number has been set at 2.5 over -130. This prop has seen quite a bit of movement, as it originally opened 2.5 under -125. Another nifty prop involving the saucy starlet, is ”Who Will Have More” Kim Kardashian Measurements 34-26-39 vs. Reggie Bush rushing+receiving yards. According To Sportsbook.com spokesperson Dave Staley, “ Kardashian is a -38.5 favorite in this very intriguing matchup, but people seem to like taking the plus number with Bush here, as Kardashian initially opened -40.5”
Staley added, “One of the most popular propositions for Super Bowl XLIV has been a cross sport proposition involving Lebron James points on Saturday vs. the total number of points scored by the Colts.” The number on this prop is a pick ‘em. There seems to be an equal number of Lebron and Colts lovers, as there has been great two way action on the Lebron Saturday points vs. Colts total points prop.”
Another Super Bowl future at Sportsbook.com that is gaining some popularity involves the Most Valuable Player and “Who will the Super Bowl MVP of the Game Thank First”. Odds-makers have installed God as a -125 favorite, followed by “Teammates” at +200, “Family” at +400, “Doesn’t thank anyone” at +500, and finally “Coach” at +900.
Since Sportsbook.com is offering so many propositions and futures for Super Bowl XLIV, there have been quite a bit of line movement involving some of these props. In addition to some of the line movements involving Kardashian, another prop that has seen some movement is “Will There be Time left on the Game Clock When the Wining Team Attempts to Dump Gatorade on the Head Coach.” This particular prop opened Yes -150 and now currently stands at -140, as there has been quite a bit of one-sided action on the No thus far.
A crazy trend that prop bettors will find interesting is the fact that the NFC has won 12 straight coin flips. The odds of this are over 3000-1. Superstitious bettors that think that this trend will continue will most likely be betting the Saints to win the coin toss at -105 juice. “Why stop there”? Dave Staley stated. “If you believe in fate that the NFC will win its 13th straight coin flip, you might as well wager on the Saints to receive the opening kickoff at reduced (-105) juice as well.”
Sportsbook.com is the place to be for all your Super Bowl XLIV betting needs. There isn’t another betting site on the planet that offers as many wagering opportunities for the big game on Sunday. Sportsbook.com is offering low juice on a variety of props, including Coin Toss, where heads and tails are both at just -101 juice.
CBB: Georgia Tech goes after rare sweep of Duke
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (16-5, 11-4 ATS) stung Duke earlier this season 71-67 as 7.5-point home underdogs and will travel to Durham on Thursday night for the rematch. Sportsbook.com has the line for this game set at Duke -12.5, and surprisingly, over 80% of the early betting action has come in on the visitors.
With young teams come youthful mistakes and Coach Paul Hewitt can teach his players and only hope they learn from him. Georgia Tech is 3-2 (4-1 ATS) in games decided by four or less points and though that sounds acceptable, both losses were winnable and two of the victories were only that close after blowing 10 or more point leads. That’s what happens you have a freshman point guard like Mfon Udofia, whose decision-making at this level of play needs experience.
Duke (17-4, 13-7 ATS) will be revenge-minded at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Coach Mike Krzyzewski has been shortening his bench in recent outings, playing primarily eight players, however that places a heavy burden on guard Jon Scheyer. The Blue Devils point guard has to handle the ball, score, and play 35+ minutes. That might be fine for now, however in a month; Scheyer might be dragging, which creates the urgency for Andre Dawkins to become a reliable third guard. This Duke squad has height and more physical players, accounting in part why they are 14-4 ATS at home vs. good rebounding teams that are +4 or better in rebound margin.
Sportsbook.com opened with Duke as 13.5-point favorites with total of 144.5, as they look avoid being swept for the first time by Georgia Tech in 14 years. The Blue Devils are off what was a blowout loss at Georgetown 89-77, scoring seven points in the final minute to make the score appear respectable. Duke is 14-4 ATS in a home game where the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last three seasons and is 13-4 OVER at Cameron Indoor after a road game where both teams scored 75 points or more.
Georgia Tech is 5-29 all-time in Durham, however 8-2 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game (8-1 UNDER in those games) this season. The Yellow Jackets have lost nine of the last 10 to the Dukies and are 3-7 ATS. The ACC action begins at 7 Eastern on ESPN2.
Bet on this match-up and every other game on College Hoops betting board at Sportsbook.com.
NBA: Thursday NBA Betting Action
It happens to most quality teams, nonetheless Miami and San Antonio drew the short straws having to play nationally televised cable games on the road after playing the night before away from home. The Heat was outscored by five points in the final 12 minutes at Boston, which proved to be the losing margin for them in a 107-102 defeat. The Spurs opened their annual Rodeo Trip with a 115-113 thriller in Sacramento. Both have little time to recoup at noted difficult places to win on Thursday night. According to Sportsbook.com, Miami is a 9.5-point dog at Cleveland, while San Antonio is favored at Portland by 2.
Wade vs James –Round 3
Miami (24-25 SU & ATS) has lost its first two games this season to Cleveland, both at home and travels to Quicken Loans Arena for the first time this campaign. The Cavaliers (39-11, 26-23-1 ATS) have the superior team as the records prove, but the matchup, though not head-to-head, of Dwayne Wade and LeBron James brings out the best of both players and teams. In the prior contests, each player has scored over 30 points, with Wade holding a slight edge 68 to 66 in total points scored.
Cleveland is a decided favorite at 9.5-points with a total of 187.5. Miami is 5-2 off a straight up loss and in the midst of playing eight of nine away from home. “This is a tough road trip we are on. We have to focus game to game,” said Wade last night. The Heat are 2-7 and 3-6 ATS playing without rest this season, losing by an unseemly 12 points per game.
If Miami is starting to feel the heat of playing a number of games away from home, Cleveland is just scorching. The Cavaliers have won nine in a row and has covered five straight spreads, three by double digits. Since slipping past Miami four games ago, the Cavs average margin of victory has been 19 per game. Cleveland is 38-18-1 ATS off a win by double digits and has covered last five outings with a day of rest. This is the opener on TNT starting at 8:00 Eastern, with Cleveland 8-1 and 6-3 ATS in previous nine get-togethers.
Deep breath and move on
The San Antonio Spurs have not been of recent vintage this season, with a 28-19 record (23-23-1 ATS), despite having played 29 home games, the most in the NBA. With the rodeo in San Antonio, that means the Spurs head out of town and the schedule starts to balance itself. San Antonio played its first of eight consecutive road games in Sac-Town last night and escaped with a two-point victory, thanks to the exploits of backup point guard George Hill. The second year player has taken over for an injured Tony Parker, scoring 23 points and dishing out a career high nine assists, drawing the praise of his head coach.
“George is probably the most improved player in the whole league,” Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said. “From his rookie year last year to this year he’s starting to get confident and played well at both ends of the floor. He’s going to be a really fine player for us.” The Spurs will need similar performance or better at Portland (29-22, 28-22-1 ATS) tonight since they are 4-9 ATS as visitors against teams with winning home record.
The Trailblazers have been dealing with injury issues of their own, with Greg Oden again done for the season and Brandon Roy having missed eight straight contests with strained right hamstring. Portland is 3-5 (4-4 ATS) during this stretch without Roy; however his replacement Jerryd Bayless has been better than adequate, averaging 14.6 PPG and shooting nearly 50 percent. The Blazers have not been their usual dominant selves at the Rose Garden with a 17-9 SU record and .500 against the spread. After being whipped by Utah 118-105 Wednesday, Portland is 6-1 ATS of late off a SU loss and 6-0 ATS after surrendering 100 or more points.
The Blazers have won three of last four at home against San Antonio, beating the odds-makers number each time. The point spread has Tim Duncan’s club opening as two-point favorites, which does not correlate to rest for each team. The Spurs are 3-5 SU and ATS with zero days off, while Portland is 8-3 SU and ATS in exact same situation and 12-3 ATS dating back to last season. The tipoff will be at approximately 10:35 Eastern.
Head over to Sportsbook.com now to get in on these two nationally televised games. Also, if Wade and James both score 30+ points, winning ‘Total Points’ props will be doubled for the Heat vs. Cavs game.
NFL: Is Super Bowl Pointspread Correct?
Any coach past or present will tell you the game of football is about two things, blocking and tackling. While that is absolutely true in its simplest form, Super Bowl XLIV is different from the past with the possible exception of just a handful of contests for the Lombardi Trophy. Start with the total of this confrontation, set at 56.5, the highest ever, surpassing the Giants and New England figure of 54 points two years ago. The most recent pointspread shows Indianapolis -4.5, with 67% of the betting action at Sportsbook.com on that side.
After the Colts solved the Jets defense in winning the AFC Championship, most odds-makers were thinking Indianapolis as three-point favorite against the winner of the NFC contest. However, since New Orleans was dominated statistically in their matchup by Minnesota, most thought 3.5 or four points would draw relatively divided action. With roughly 15-20 percent of the dollars wagered on the side of the Super Bowl by this past Sunday, the vast majority of the action had been on Indy, moving them to -5.5 points, but the Dwight Freeney news shoved the number back down to -4.5. In breaking down the two teams, is the number accurate?
Peyton Manning vs New Orleans pass defense
Peyton Manning has arguably been the best quarterback in football the last eight years. The Colts averaged 283 yards passing against teams that allowed 218, that’s almost a 30 percent difference vs. any defense they have taken on this year. Manning makes uncommon sight adjustments to blitzes and gets rid of the ball quickly. New Orleans on the other hand can be riddled by opposing teams via the pass. Take away games this season in which the Saints faced teams who preferred to run like Carolina, Detroit, Buffalo, Miami and the Jets, and the New Orleans secondary surrendered 277.6 yards in the 12 other contests or roughly what the Colts totaled all season. Granted, some the yardage allowed was after New Orleans had built big leads in several early games, but there were a number of late season contests in which they were also torched.
Nobody in football makes better in-game adjustments than Manning and his offensive coordinator Tom Moore and nobody this season did a better job in stopping opposing teams by forcing turnovers than the Saints. Defensive coordinator Greg Williams is on record as saying how they attacked Brett Favre is similar to how they want to get after Manning. The Jets had Darrelle Revis to at least take away Reggie Wayne and they did a good job in limiting Dallas Clark. It does not appear Manning will face those same obstacles against Saints secondary.
Spread Differential – Indianapolis -7
Drew Brees vs Indianapolis pass defense
Drew Brees might not have All-Pro type receivers like Manning has in Wayne and Clark; however he has a stable that any Kentucky thoroughbred barn would be proud of. No team in professional football had a more diverse passing attack than New Orleans. The Saints had seven different players catch 35 balls or more during the regular season. Coach Sean Payton has set up his offense very much like a basketball team that has both exceptional depth and the skill to score points. Only Manning has the ability to scan the field as quickly to find an open receiver as Brees, who also has keen understanding of taking what the offense gives as well as wanting to dictate the tempo to keep the defense guessing. The Colts are better equipped to limit or contain the New Orleans passing game. Bookend defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis can bring a heap of trouble off the edges. Freeney in particular is going to demand a double team, unless his troubled ankle proves otherwise, as normal backup tackle Jermon Bushrod is not equipped to make this a solo project. Mathis’ edge over right tackle Jon Stinchcomb isn’t as definitive; just the same the Colts DE is the better player. Antoine Beathea is an emerging star at safety for the Colts, with the rest of the secondary somewhat dependant on what happens up front.
Spread Differential – New Orleans -3
Indianapolis running game vs. New Orleans front seven
For two teams in the Super Bowl, this is one area that is about as unusual as you will find. The Colts running game is reminiscent of Bill Walsh’s and Joe Montana’s first winning Super Bowl team from the 1982 season. The 49ers were a pure passing team and ran the ball just to give the defense something to preoccupy from time to time. The Indianapolis front office had not been impressed with Joseph Addai since they won the Super Bowl in 2006 season and drafted Donald Brown from Connecticut. Addai doesn’t hit the edges as well on the stretch plays, working better between the B-gaps and making cuts. Indy posts a laughable 3.5 yards per carry against teams that permitted 4.1. The offense line seldom gets a chance to go out and drive block, however does appear less potent in this aspect of the game from the Super Bowl team from three years ago. Beyond Sedrick Ellis, the Saints defense front absorbs more punishment than it creates. New Orleans gives up 4.6 yards per carry, since their linebackers lack extensive speed to quickly fill gaps. It would seem Indianapolis could do business here, but has shown no inclination to commit to the run, rushing over 100 yards twice on last 12 contests. Expect the Colts to be satisfied carrying the ball their usual 23 times and leave it to their MVP to close the deal.
Spread Differential – Even
New Orleans running game vs Indianapolis front seven
Besides turnovers, if the Saints are going to upset the Colts, this is where it has to come from. Guards Carl Nicks, Jahri Evans and center Jonathan Goodwin must have special day opening up holes for Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. Saints coach Payton needs to show restraint here and get physical upfront with the Colts. Gouging the Indianapolis defense for four to five yards a pop opens up tight end Jeremy Shockey and slot receiver Robert Meacham in the passing game. Payton may try the screen game, however few have had success against linebackers Clint Session, Gary Brackett and safety Beathea, who can all run and are sure tacklers. Instead, as part of the running game, they should include trips (three receiver sets) to the short side of the field, with Bush standing behind them and sending him into motion to the wide side of the field, hopefully drawing a linebacker. This gets Bush in the open field for essentially a screen pass or comeback slant route underneath with blockers, more or less a run play in the Saints’ offense.
Spread Differential – New Orleans -1
Special Teams
Reggie Bush gives the Saints a home run hitter in returning punts, however the way to stop him is what Minnesota did, have the punter sacrifice a few yards to increase kick coverage and get right in his grill upon the catch. Indianapolis continues to spend little time in this area and is strictly run of the mill. Where the Colts have edge is at place-kicker. Matt Stover came in when Adam Vinateri was injured. The 42-year old Stover will be the oldest player ever participate in the Super Bowl and has 20 years experience, including being the Ravens kicker during the 2001 Super Bowl campaign. Stover’s range is limited to about 45-yards, especially outdoors and has made 80 percent (20 of 25) of field goals in his postseason career. Kicker Garrett Hartley is young enough (23) to conceivably be Stover’s son. Hartley has made 24 of 26 field goals in his two years, but the pressure is all together different on the game’s biggest stage. Plus, Hartley has kicked in a dome the last two seasons and realistically is untested, though his game winner over Minnesota was impressive.
Spread Differential – Indianapolis -1
Coaching
It would seem these two coaches couldn’t be any more different with each facing unprecedented scrutiny for the first time. Jim Caldwell, to the chagrin of his team, gave up a 14-0 season and a chance for perfection to be in this position and it worked. Caldwell’s strength is in his beliefs and defensive. He altered the mechanics of the Colts defense, still playing a lot of Cover 2, but blitzed twice as much as his predecessor Tony Dungy. With young players at corner due to injuries, he followed the Colts’ ideologies of players expected to step up and perform. He is a low key leader who trusts his assistants and his team.
Sean Payton’s arrival into the NFL showed a fertile offensive mind who couldn’t devise enough trick plays and use them quickly enough. Like many great offensive teams, the coach and quarterback become one on various levels and Payton has trusted Brees from the beginning. Payton took some lumps the last couple of seasons, which has brought about a new found maturity. As opposed to Caldwell, he embraced the notion of a perfect season when his team was 13-0. He makes no bones about playing to his strength (offense) and turned the defense over this season to Gregg Williams. His biggest task this game is not letting his emotions affect his play calling.
Spread Differential -None
Intangibles
There have been a number of teams that have won their first Super Bowl without having been involved in this maniacal environment, but having the experience is certainly a plus. Teams playing in this contest for the first time against experienced foe are desultory 6-11 ATS. Though players say they understand, sometimes its months later in reflection that they realize they were satisfied to make the Big Game as opposed to truly desiring to win it. Payton and Brees have the heart of an assassin, thus their preparation and desire is predicated on going home as champions. The city of New Orleans, with all that has happened once Hurricane Katrina made land, feels like it is playing with house money and welcomes the idea of their football team playing for the city’s first championship, instead of craving it.
The Indianapolis team that was at this same location in 2007 was probably the worst of the four previous (2003-06) Colts playoff teams. That club found a hot rookie running back in Addai and the offensive line got into a bull-dozing mode and they plowed their way to championship. That experience gives the Colts an edge knowing what to expect and what level of performance is necessary. Teams favored by three to six points in this truly American game are 8-2 ATS.
Spread Differential –Indianapolis -3
Bottom Line - Having the best quarterback in the game who doesn’t make many mistakes, a better defense and better than half the roster having Super Bowl experience leads to figure below.
Cumulative Spread Differential – Indianapolis -7
With over 350 props and Reduced Juice (-105) Fridays, Sportsbook.com is your place for Super Bowl XLIV.
